US and world economy

[EJB]

Hi guys.

Just curious what you are all thinking about the state of the US economy? I myself am very discouraged and see *nothing* good on the horizon, and fear we are in for an extended period of high unemployment, stagnant growth and possibly deflation...the layoffs continue, the federal defecit is increasing, the national debt is a staggering $6.4 Trillion dollars, and there is no end in sight....not too mentioin, IRAQ, N Korea, and the constant threat of new terrorist attacks worldwide....

Not looking to turn this into a democrat/republican thing (they all can be blamed), but curious if anyone is seeing anything encouraging out there...I don't. Each day brings more bad news...but maybe I am looking in all the wrong places [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

Thoughs?

I agree with you EJB. The sad fact is we're going to go farther down the toilet fighting everyone else's battles. We may save the world once again from the future of these wacko dictatorships but all it's going to get us is a bully reputation and put our country further into debt. Don't get me wrong I think we should do what we're doing but it sure would be nice to get a little credit once in awhile for this great country.

[EJB]

I hadn't thought of it in those terms Richard, but come do think of it, it does bother me to see the South Koreans protesting our military being there...quickest way to get rid of all those protestors would be to pack up the 40,000 or so troops and pull them out....and then see how quickly we are invited back (i.e. when the 1million man N. Korean army marches over the border.

[wasabi]

Hey,

I look at these issues everyday and confess that I too find little to be optimistic about as regards the economy. While I have great faith in America, our collective spirit and all that, I can't ignore the economic storm clouds that I see gathering. IMHO, we will be extremely lucky (remember, luck and hope are NOT investment strategies) if we manage to avoid a deflationary depression this year. It might be different if the entire world did not rely on the beleagured U.S. consumer who is already up to the proverbial eyeballs in debt. Plant extra vegies this year and be preparred to batten down the hatches. For what it is worth, as we enter into this '03 year, I have three new favorite asset classes.

[EJB]

I share you concerns about debt, not only consumers, who are upto there eyeballs, but also corporations and the government....I just don't see how we are going to get ourselves out of the mess we are in.

I hadn't paid much attention to the national debt lately, but yesterday did some digging and found out that we owe $6.4trillion dollars as a country...and pay almost as much for the entire military, as we do for interest on the debt (never mind the principal payments)...a staggerring $300+ BILLION dollars per year just to service the national debt....quite a legacy to leave my children and grandchildren...we are spending their money...guess since kids can't vote yet, the politicians can get away with it.

I am sure you are only half kidding about planting extra veggies, but I have the same thoughts some times. (and yes, I am planting extra veggies and making sure I have enough meat walking around the barn...just in case [img]/forums/images/icons/ooo.gif[/img] )

[EJB]

>>I have three new favorite asset classes.


BTW: what are they? cash, cash, and cash? [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[wasabi]

<font color="blue"> Re: three favorite asset classes </font color>

Pretty close, EJB.

Cash, Canned Goods and Firearms [img]/forums/images/icons/smirk.gif[/img]

[Ranchman]

EJB-

<font color="blue">maybe I am looking in all the wrong places </font color>

Yup. Turn off that blasted TV! [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

Well, I honestly don't feel like going in to a debate (my head hurts from that on some of the other threads! [img]/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif[/img] )

Anyway, I am more optimistic than you. Personally, from what I've seen, I am not convinced this is such a "terrible" economic time in our history. Sure, there have been better times, but there have been much worse as well. I can remember (&amp; lived through) times where the economy was MUCH (yes, ***MUCH***) worse than it is today, when just about every economic indicator was in the toilet (unlike today.)

Sure, where someone says our economy is “horrific,” I could bring up facts to contradict it (interest rates, housing costs, unemployment rates, etc.) but, unlike my normal MO, I’m just too tired to “fight” folks on this one. I'm also too tired to go in to the whole economic model debate (no, I will not talk about Laffer curves or the Keynesian Cross, etc...)

Suffice to say, throughout the history of this country, there have been (and will continue to be) "good" economic times and "bad" economic times. Sure, some areas are seeing, and will continue to see, hard times - but not everybody is in the doldrums. That is the nature of economic evolution - demand vs. supply, what is hot/what is not. (Mass marketing of “buggy whips” went out with the auto - I’m sure some folks were sorry to see their jobs go the way of the do-do then too.)

Before anyone gets in to the “Well, I know someone who has been laid off!” etc... yes, yes, I know plenty of folks who have been laid off too, and I've seen bankruptcies as well. At the same time, I also see constant development and new offerings for products &amp; services all over the place. Are they the same as they were 5 years ago? Some are, some aren’t. Is everybody making a killing launching their own “dot com” today? Nope.

Yes, the news makes every drop in the Dow a huge headline/lead in, but every day it goes up - well, they barely mention it and then, only when going to commercial. Quite frankly, there is something to say about being honest about the state of things, but the constant “the sky is falling” attitude the media portrays is contagious, and, I believe is to a certain extent, a self fulfilling prophecy. (Yes, I have lots of problems with the media in general - but that’s a whole other thread.)

Again, I really don’t want to argue and go down the line of trying to prove my position. This time, I just plain don’t feel like it as I suspect it would be a lot of wasted energy. [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img] No disrespect intended (honestly), but quite frankly, I get kindof tired of hearing people complain, saying that their lives and those around them is “TERRIBLE now!” and is only going to get worse.

Perhaps I'm an "unfeeling" individual, but my knee-jerk reaction is "Buck up and deal with it!" I won't go in to my personal life, other than to say I have had to deal with things that I hope nobody else has to go through - and during it all, I never complained about how life was unfair or I was being treated poorly - I dealt with it - adjusted when I could and accepted when I had to. And me with my personal hardships in life, well, compared to some of the truly horrific situations people around the world are in (or lived through), I consider myself VERY fortunate. I think that while yes, it is important to realistically approach every issue and not euphemistically sugar-coat things, I wish a lot more folks would really look at the life they are leading here in the U.S. - even with all their problems &amp; issues - and realize how good they really have it. (Perhaps a few more prayers of thanks in the evening are in order! )

Anyway, nothing personal against anyone who has posted as of yet, but what it all boils down to is that, yes, here’s someone who disagrees with your interpretation of the US’s economic position.

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PS: Sidebar: Americans have traditionally been isolationists, wanting to avoid foreign entanglements. Unfortunately we are hated around the world - sometimes because we “stick our nose in their business” - sometimes because we “do nothing.” It’s the classic “D’d if you do, D’d if you don’t.” scenario. Seems to me I recall a national hero by the name of Lindbergh very much a isolationist. The U.S. hadn’t attacked Japan, merely stopped shipping them steel &amp; oil. Was our involvement in WWII the “wrong” thing to do? Should we have continued to remain isolationist against the Axis powers? Of course not (and I know nobody is necessarily suggesting such on this thread.) My point is that there are times in history where the U.S., for self interest, and for the interest of the world as a whole, must look further than our own shores. Is it expensive? Yes. May we incur hardship? Yes. (remember rationing in WWII anyone?) Will some of our people loose their lives? Yes. Is it the right thing to do? [/i]Yes.[/i]

[Alan_L_Texas]

I don't see such a bleak picture. I think some who were laid off in certain industries (communications) are going to be in trouble, and might have to change professions at least for a while. For them, it is terrible. For others, just a tightening of the belts.

The debt is a concern, but as long as increasing debt and/or printing more currency does not produce runaway inflation, hopefully it will be OK.

I wish we could just ignore the world and not spend all that money and risk all those American lives dealing with Iraq and possible N. Korea. It might work out however that a great effort now will in the long run save many lives and improve the overall economy for our children and grandchildren. If this is not the case, then we should bring everyone home and put our heads in the sand.

I think the economy goes in cycles, regardless. What we are experiencing is a downturn, and I feel we will recover (some people more than others).

I believe that we still have the best economy in history, one that neither the Democrats nor the Replicans can screw up in the long run. Much of the economy is driven by consumer confidence, so we should all go out and buy some new toys to get this thing going again [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img] .

[Ranchman]

Cowboydoc -

<font color="blue">I think we should do what we're doing but it sure would be nice to get a little credit once in awhile for this great country.
</font color>

I wholeheartedly concur! [img]/forums/images/icons/frown.gif[/img]