Future of Ranching?

[JoeR]

Over the past few months, numerous ranchers in the Florida area have started selling their land to developers. Some are getting grief from the general public about selling out, but how can we blame them. A friend of mine has 200 head of cattle, and estimates he only gets about 20K in profit per year. Yet his 400 acres of land is worth millions! He doesn't plan on selling since he told me he has been around cows all his life, and wouldn't know what to do if he sold all his property. As we were talking, we got into the what-if scenarios of the long term future of ranching. I asked what would happen to the agriculture industry if all the large ranches were selling out. He estimates most cattle ranches would be under 20 acres, and large grazing areas would be a thing of the past. Does this mean the price of meat will go up? Will we be importing more South American meat to keep prices down? I know that Florida will most likely be importing more meat from the midwest, but that means prices have to change since there will be less ranchers. Or will some corporate giant get into the cattle business and run the small ranches into the ground since the corporate giant will mass produce poor quality meat? (No frills Wal-Mart steak?)

So what is the prediction? Are we going to have a global agriculture market too, and import all our food? Now that would be stupid! Outsourcing our food would allow other countries to control our destiny since starvation is a well known way of controlling people.

Sorry for the rant, but I wonder where we are going with our agriculture industry. A layman's point of view...

Joe

[egon]

Many people share your concerns Joe. On the other hand most are interested in the buying cost and are totally oblivious to the production side. You know the old story about chocalate milk and brown cows.

Wish I knew the answer.

Egon [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

[twstanley]

I wouldn't worry about all ranchs nationwide selling out and turning into suburbia. There is lots of acreage around here that is not being used at the moment, I think a lot of it is in the governments CRP program ( where the government pays you to not do anything to it more or less [img]/forums/images/icons/cool.gif[/img] there are some exceptions, I think you can use it for grazing if there is a drought, maybe some other conditions )

The price of beef is at record highs, I am suprised your friend with the 200 head isn't able to make more profit recently, maybe his expenses are pretty high as well? If he had land worth millions and was only making 20k a year off it, that is pretty darn poor return on investment. I would have to sell the land and buy some cheaper land somewhere else and raise cattle on the new cheap ranch. =)

[Pat]

Much of your concern is over items of cultural evolution. 40 years ago how many meals a week, on average, were eaten away from home? Repeat at ten year intervals... Follow the trend. 40 years ago how many "home cooked" meals were pre-fabbed? Now home cooked is typically a euphamism for heat and eat...at home. Frozen pizza, pop tarts, etc.

Factory farms and ranches on a large scale assembly line are going to overtake and outcompete, through economy of scale, virtually all other agricultural producers. Where once nearly everyone had a garden who had enough space to have one, even in town, now buy their lettuce from Wally World already cut up, vegie plates and other items pre-fabbed so as not to have to actually cut up a whole vegetable.

Convenience drives a large portion of the marketplace and buying meat cut up in a factory is way easier than going to Joe down the way and buying a hog to slaughter or a pig to raise for slalughter. Small (read marginal) cattle operations abound. The vast majority of folks I know around here, who can, are raising beef. By far the most popular is cow-calf but some stockers. I only know one guy who is making a living at it and he is literally working himself to death. EVERYONE ELSE whether they admit it or not is using a retirement check, a regular town jopb, or other means to subsidize there cattle raising life style. It is a lifestyle not a profitable buisness in the majority of cases of which I am personally familiar. This includes folks with 20 head to hundreds.

There are notable exceptions. One is a guy I met who leases grazing acreages, overgrazes them, avoids paying the lease and moves on to the next sucker, which apparently is easy to find, I know I was.

We have already lost a lot of prime agricultural land to "development" under the guise of highest and best use. The cabal composed of developers and politicians wants to maximize the number of residents per unit area because it is definitely in both there selfish interests. Developers make more money the more residences they sell and politicians want to increase the tax base, hence the best and highest use connection. You might have agricultural land but if a developer wants it one tactic is to entice a municipality to anex it, rezone it, and tax the agricultural operation out of viability so the property ends up as fodder for the developer and a tax base for the politician.

As corporate farms and ranches grow ever larger the small operation is marginalized. There is no way a small operator can comperte with the large quantity buys of feed, fertilizer, meds, vet on retainer, and on and on that gives a distinct advantage to the BIG BOYS. Try to raise chickens and compete with Tyson!

A few clever and industrious individuals sell through farmer's markets, roadside stands, and other low volume outlets but probably aren't making enough to pay everyone involved a decent salary, sock away $ for retirement, have a good health plan, and send kids to college. My had is definitely off to those who can "beat the odds" and make a viable self sustaining small scale family buisness.

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